Jeff Siegel's Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Santa Anita

Sunday, January 19, 2020

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel's "Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies" isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

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​It is recommended that Jeff's selections be used to augment the reader's own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff's analysis.  Jeff's recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff's wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff's Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race's key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.

Grade B=Solid Play.

Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.

Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

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​The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today's Day Makers: View Video

 Today's Workout Analysis: View Report (PDF)

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Rosey Sky; 5-Bella Chica

 Forecast: Bella Chica ran well when second in her debut a little over a year ago and then disappeared.  She returns in a soft spot with a series of moderate main track drills, so her condition is a question, but she almost looks like the logical top pick by default in this straight maiden state-bred turf sprint for older fillies and mares.  Rosey Sky, away since flashing excellent early speed and then faltering in a similar abbreviated grass sprint here last May, has been training at Los Alamitos for her comeback and the work tab looks decent enough.  We are going to assume she's much better than her only outing indicates.  We'll use both in our rolling exotics in a race that probably is best left alone.

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:01 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Tromador

Forecast: Tromador is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite after finishing a good third two-turning on turf vs. tougher last month.  He'll add blinkers for the turn back to seven furlongs and the switch to dirt, and that, coupled with the rail, makes him problematic as a short price standout.  But if it's not him, then who?  You can use him as a no value rolling exotic single or better yet simply pass the race.

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​​RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: X

Use: 1-Best Two Minutes; 6-Top of the Game

Forecast: ​ Top of the Game obviously has issues but as long as he stays at this level he'll probably continue to win.  The ex-classer has captured his last three in solid fashion and if he has one good one left he should be able to extend the streak.  Best Two Minutes, a distant runner-up to 'Game at Los Alamitos last month, looks like a logical exacta partner one again and may be worth a saver in rolling exotic play just in case the favorite fails to fire.

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​​​RACE 4: Post 2:04 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Querelle; 5-Point Hope; 7-Arctic Roll

Forecast: Here's a grass grab bag for restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claiming fillies and mares at a mile on grass.  We'll go three-deep and hope that's enough.  Point Hope beat a lesser field just 16 days ago and is wheeled back quickly by R. Ellis to take advantage of the soft conditions.  She's a fit on speed figures, so if the Irish-bred mare can turn in two alike she could easily win right back and at 6-1 on the morning line there may be some value to be found.  Querelle failed to fire when  beaten as the favorite in a tougher starter's allowance event over this course and distance earlier this month and hasn't won a race since being imported from England in the fall of 2018.  This is her easiest chance to date, so we're expecting her to make some noise from off the pace in the final furlong.  Arctic Roll shows up in a seller for the first time and is another likely to improve with the class drop and the switch to F. Prat.  She projects to be on or near the lead throughout and is worth tossing in at 8-1 on the morning line.

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​​RACE 5: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Concord Jet; 2-Jen Go Unchained; 6-Friendly Steve

 Forecast: This modest dash for restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimers looks treacherous so best advice is to include as many as you can afford to.  Jen Go Unchained, a solid runner-up in a similar affair at Del Mar in late November, can win if he can turn in two alike, something that has never his strong suit.  However, both of his races at this abbreviated sprint trip were strong, so let's give the M. Puype-trained gelding a very slight edge on top.  Friendly Steve, away for nearly a year, returns cheap, so he's a question mark.  On the plus side, this low profile barn has good stats with layoff runners and on numbers he's a fit so we have to use him.  Concord Jet draws the rail, is certain to flash good early speed and could stick around a long time at the distance of his only prior win.  Feel free to spread deeper if you find the need.

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​​RACE 6: Post 3:07 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1- Lostintranzlation; 5-Siberian Iris

 Forecast: ​Siberian Iris can handle this marathon trip, having on a three-turn turf stakes at Del Mar two races back from far off the pace.  Additionally, she has two prior wins over the local lawn and could fire a big shot in her first start since last September for R. Mandella, who has excellent stats with layoff off runners.  Lostintranzlation is the certain controlling speed and has shown that when left alone she can be very difficult to catch.  She can handle the trip if not pressured early and the projected pace scenario of this race looks highly favorite to her profile.  We'll try to survive and advance in rolling exotic play using just these two.

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RACE 7: Post 3:37 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Nadal; 5-Exaulted; 7-Lane Way

Forecast: This is a salty maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-olds and it probably will take a pretty good colt to win it.  Lane Way, purchased for $550,000 at the OBS March Sale, debuts for R. Mandella with a series of good workouts  and should be plenty fit for a big effort first crack out of the box.  The son of Into Mischief has done everything in the morning like a quality colt.  Nadal had the misfortune of drawing the rail but gets J. Rosario and has strung together a series of impressive drills for Baffert.  The son of Blame should be a pace factor throughout, assuming he breaks with his field.  Exaulted is another newcomer with a nice workout pattern and is worth including in rolling exotic play.  The son of Twirling Candy has been schooled in the a.m. to sit back and produce a late run, and we're expecting that strategy to be employed by M. Smith.  Let's give Lane Way the edge on top but include all three in our rolling exotics.

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RACE 8: Post 4:07 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Real Master; 3-Tequila Joe; 6-Tough It Out

Forecast: The finale is a $25,000 claiming turf miler with several possibilities.  Tequila Joe lost a toughie vs. similar at Del Mar in late November, and after a fairly rugged fall campaign probably deserved a bit of a breather.  If ready, the M. Glatt-trained gelding may be as good as any, and the switch to A. Cedillo certainly won't hurt.  Tough It Out, a close fourth in the same race Tequila Joe exits, always has liked the local lawn and shows a steady work tab at Los Alamitos for A. Sherman that should have him plenty fit.  The son of Grazen is a one-paced grinder but should find himself in a good stalking position and with every chance from the quarter pole home.  Real Master drops into a seller for the first time and switches to J. Rosario, so there's every reason to believe he can be competitive in this league.